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BetOnline NFL Week 13 Podcast

The BetOnline.com handicappers are back and this week, Stan Simmons unleashes his Game of the Year. Listen to the podcast (coming shortly) to hear all of Simmons’, Blake Frazier’s and D.J. Tompkins’ picks for NFL Week 13.

Denver Broncos -5 @ Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers -15

Houston Texans +1 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans +6.5 @ Indianapolis Colts

Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals -13

New Orleans Saints -9.5 @ Washington Redskins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers -6

St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears -9

San Diego Chargers -13.5 @ Cleveland Browns

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks -1

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 @ Arizona Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys -1 @ New York Giants

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers -3

NFL – Lock Of The Week

While the Philadelphia Eagles struggled with the Washington Redskins last week, they should have a much easier time of things with the Atlanta Falcons this week.

The Falcons will be without starting quarterback Matt Ryan, running back Michael Turner and left tackle Sam Baker this week, which really takes the bite out of their offense.

On the other sideline, though, will be one of the best passing offenses in the league and that’s not something that the Falcons want to hear about.

The Falcons pass defense is among the worst in the NFL. So far this year, they have given up 45 pass plays of 20 yards or longer, which is the most in the NFL. They’ll be going up against Donovan McNabb and a prolific passing offense – even if DeSean Jackson is out this week.

The Eagles have depth at receiver and they will find ways to move the football down the field. For the Falcons, though, it’s hard to say the same. With backups at three key positions, they’ll have trouble against a very good defense that blitzes and creates pressure frequently.

Look for the Eagles to win rather easily in this game and cover the five-point spread without issue.

Pick: Eagles -5

NFL – Underdog Of The Week

The Houston Texans are at a low-point right, morally speaking.

They are at 5-6 and just one game out of the playoffs but just three games ago, they were 5-3 with a great chance to make the playoffs.

The Texans blew two consecutive games by missing game-tying kicks late in fourth quarters. Then they blew a 17-point lead to the Indianapolis Colts last week and completely folded in the second half.

Even so, this is a team that plays better when there is no pressure and that is exactly the situation this week.

The Texans head out on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in a very manageable contest for them.

Jacksonville is a team that can beat the bad teams in the league and can take advantage of mistakes, but they don’t overwhelm any of their opponents. This week, they’ll be without cornerback Rashean Mathis, who is their best cover man, and when you consider that the Jaguars have just 10 sacks in the NFL this year, which is the fewest, they’ll have a tough time pressuring Matt Schaub.

Look for the Texans to get a big bounce back win and top the Jaguars.

Pick: Houston +1

Underdog Of The Week

The Miami Dolphins have done a great job to get back to .500 this year. They started the season 0-3 and have managed to get back to 5-5, which is impressive, but this week they are faced with a tough road trip.

The warm-weather Dolphins have to head out to Buffalo to face the cold-weather Bills in what could be a very difficult contest for them. The Bills might be 3-7 but this is still an AFC East rivalry, which means you can throw the records out the window.

In the last 17 meetings in Buffalo, the Bills have won 11 of them outright. Beyond that, the Bills are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as a home underdog of three points or less.

Last week, the Bills showed some effort for new head coach Perry Fewell and bettors should expect that to carry over this week. The quarterback change to Ryan Fitzpatrick has made a noticeable difference in the passing game and the Bills have discovered what some people might call an offense.

Overall, the Bills are quite beat up and their run defense is going to deter a lot of bettors from siding with them but this is a matchup of two even teams and the Bills should be able to use their home field advantage to pull this one out.

Pick: Bills +3

Eagles The Lock Of The Week

It’s time for some turkey as the NFL moves into Thanksgiving week. On Thursday, we’ll start with a triple header and then finish off the action on Sunday.

The best bet of the week has to be the Philadelphia Eagles, who are facing off with the hapless Washington Redskins. The Redskins are really beat up at this point and the Eagles, who have been inconsistent at times, should be able to take advantage.

The Redskins will be without three members of their offensive line, including Chris Samuels, Randy Thomas and Chad Rinehart. They’ll also be without their top two starting running backs (Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts) and their starting tight end (Chris Cooley).

Beyond that, the Redskins may also be without cornerback DeAngelo Hall, who has a mild MCL sprain, and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who is recovering from a sprained ankle.

The Eagles may be a team that rides the roller coaster, but they are more than capable of taking advantage of a toothless Redskins team.

The Redskins offense can barely muster enough points when everyone is healthy and now they may have to get in a scoring match without many of their regularly. Without a running game and without much of a defense on the Redskins side, look for the Eagles to run up the score in this game and cover the nine-point spread rather easily.

Pick: Eagles -9

Sports betting players are always looking for an underdog to ride to a big win, and in the NFL this season, there’s no shortage as there is a number of awful teams, maybe more than at any point in recent memory. This week’s pick may shock you, but it’s all set up for Oakland this week.

Bengals vs Raiders odds – Sunday, November 22, 4:15 PM ET

Cincinnati (7-2) beat Pittsburgh for the second time this year in an 18-12 win in Steeltown, and NFL betting players must have been surprised to see the Bengals beat the Steelers at their own game: with defense. While they only gained 218 yards themselves, including 61 on the ground, the Bengals held the Steelers to 226 yards and 80 rushing yards. Carson Palmer wasn’t spectacular by going 18-of-30 for 178 yards, but he didn’t make any mistakes. The Bengals scored the game’s only major when Bernard Scott ran a kickoff back 96 yards. However, it came at a cost as Cedric Benson left with a hip injury.

The Raiders (2-7) are finally giving JaMarcus Russell the boot after a 16-10 loss at home to Kansas City, as he was 8of-23 for 64 yards. Bruce Gradkowski came in and went 5-of-9 for 49 yards and a couple of picks, but he seemed to be willing to make plays, and if they turn into mistakes, so be it. The Raiders’ coaching staff has never felt that confidently in Russell, who will be on the bench this week. Michael Bush ran for 119 yards, and even if you’re an NFL betting player, if you’re into fantasy, go get him.

NFL betting odds in your sportsbook have the Bengals as a 9.5-point favorite on the road, and even though they’re 4-0 on the road, they’ve yet to go to the West Coast this year, and time difference is a little-referenced factor in sports. In fact, the Bengals haven’t been out west since 2007, when they lost to Seattle and San Francisco. Cincinnati have won three in a row, including wins over tough Baltimore and Pittsburgh teams, and they’re due for a letdown as they head into an easy stretch (at Oakland, home to Cleveland and Detroit). Oakland could get a spark with Gradkowski at the helm, and let’s face it, he’s no worse than Russell. Combine that with an underrated Oakland defense, and 9.5 points is too many to lay with the Bengals.

NFL picks: Raiders +9.5

Steelers over Chiefs

We’ve reached Week 11 of NFL betting and it seems true “locks” are harder to find each week. Two weeks ago we thought we were safe with Green Bay at Tampa; last week, the surprisingly competitive Rams pushed New Orleans hard enough to beat the spread. Out best bet to find that lock is to start thinking about it by midweek. Right now, the Steelers look like the safe choice.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, November 18, 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL betting: Steelers -10

Interestingly enough, the Steelers’ Week 10 result is the biggest clue as to how they’ll perform in Week 11. If they’d beaten the Bengals and gone to 7-2 atop the AFC North, they’d be in cruise control right now and very susceptible to a trap game – kind of like the Bengals are in Oakland this week. Instead, the Steelers are looking up angrily at the Bengals in the standings and hungry for redemption. Since Pittsburgh won’t get caught napping after a disappointing loss, Kansas City loses the one possible edge it had.

The Chiefs are terrible against the pass; Big Ben Roethlisberger is arguably enjoying his best offensive season to date and should have no problem carving up the K.C. secondary. The Chiefs are horrible against the run; Rashard Mendenhall can stomp all over their front seven. The Chiefs can’t pass, especially with Dwayne Bowe gone from the lineup, so the Steelers won’t have any trouble there. Defending the run, Pittsburgh’s No. 1 run defense will swallow up Jamaal Charles.

It’s tough to see any reason why the Chiefs can win this game or even keep it close, so the Steelers are your lock of the week.

NFLBet has teamed up with the expert handicappers from the BetOnline.com Betting Edge to provide you with their weekly podcast. When it comes to picks, the more the merrier.

Blake Frazier, Stan Simmons and D.J. Tompkins run through their games audio-styles and we list ours below in text. Feel free to post yours as well in the comments.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets -7

Denver Broncos -3.5 @ Washington Redskins

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers -7

Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans -7

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings -16.5

New Orleans Saints -13.5 @ St. Louis Rams

Atlanta Falcons -1 @ Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins -10

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders -2

Seattle Seahawks +9 @ Arizona Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers -1

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers +3

New England Patriots +3 @ Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens -10 @ Cleveland Browns

Source: http://bettingedge.blip.tv/file/2845974

Both Denver and Baltimore are coming off bye weeks, but they return to action in much different situations. Denver has raced to a 6-0 start and a commanding lead in the AFC West. The Ravens, meanwhile, spoiled a 3-0 start with three consecutive losses.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, Nov. 1 at 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL betting: Ravens -3

Are the Ravens contenders or pretenders? It’s very difficult to say. Two of their first three wins came against creampuffs (Cleveland and Kansas City) while they lost three in a row to New England, Cincinnati and Minnesota—by a total of 11 points. Offensively, there are few complaints. Ray Rice is emerging as one of the league’s most impressive running backs. He’s coming off a two-touchdown, 294-yard effort against the Vikings and is averaging nearly 130 yards from scrimmage per game.

Of course, offense hasn’t been the problem. The once-vaunted Ravens “D” has completely imploded and is allowing over 20 points per game. The passing defense is surrendering 241 yards per outing and shows no signs of improvement on the horizon. If Baltimore wants to compete in the AFC North, the defense must shape up quickly.

Defense hasn’t been an issue in Denver. The Broncos are allowing a paltry 11 points per game while playing stingy against both run and pass. Minimizing big plays has been a major factor; Denver has allowed just one run of 20-plus yards and one pass of 40-plus yards, both tied for tops in the NFL.

The Broncos have been very efficient with the football. They won’t be breaking scoring records any time soon but, with their defense, they don’t need to. The ground game has been very effective at 132 yards per outing, but don’t shortchange Kyle Orton on your sports betting system; he’s turned over the ball just once this season, on a meaningless end-of-half Hail Mary, no less.

It’s always difficult to make NFL picks on a team coming out of the bye, and in this matchup we have two of them. There’s no telling who will come out fresh or flat but, based on what we’ve seen this year, the Broncos are the team to bet. Denver has the “D” to slow Rice and Co. while the offense will quietly chug away with some impressive rushing totals. Hard to believe, but bet on Denver to go 7-0.

The NFL betting fans wrapped up Week 3, but that’s no reason for fans to waste any time breaking down Week 4’s hottest matchups. Let’s check out a few of the bigger games and make some NFL picks:

Baltimore at New England

The Ravens are undefeated and look like serious contenders this season. No, the defense might not be as dominant as years past, but it’s still very good—and now it’s backed up by a talented offense. Joe Flacco is following up a nice rookie season with a fantastic effort in 2009.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Tom Brady has struggled in his return to the Patriots’ lineup. Brady has gone through a tremendously long layoff so some rust should be expected. He finally got help from the running game last week—Fred Taylor rushed for over 100 yards—and to no one’s surprise, the Patriots won.

This will be a very close contest but Brady is getting his feet back under him. Look for the Pats to bail one out at home.

New York Jets at New Orleans

Offense and defense collide! The Saints have been firing on all cylinders; last week, even with Drew Brees heavily planned against, New Orleans still rolled up 27 points thanks to a banner rushing effort.

The Jets, meanwhile, look like a completely different team under new head coach Rex Ryan. This team has a lot of swagger and cornerback Darrelle Revis is good enough to take Marques Colston out of the game. Unfortunately for the Jets, New Orleans has many weapons to choose from.

With a balance offense and an improving defense, look for the Saints to break New York’s three-game winning streak.

San Diego at Pittsburgh

These are two talented teams that seem to be scraping by. The Steelers are in a little bit of trouble; after two straight losses they trail the 3-0 Ravens in the AFC North. Pittsburgh has played in three very close games now so at least its resolve must be hardening. Still, this team has to figure out how to run the ball.

San Diego can’t run the ball either, but it hasn’t mattered too much with Philip Rivers picking up where he left off last season. Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards so far. There are problems on defense, though, as the Chargers can’t get any pressure on the quarterback. Losing Shawne Merriman to injury won’t help either.

Look for the defending Super Bowl Champions to get their act together. They’re desperate for a victory and the running game at least showed some signs of life last week.

Green Bay at Minnesota

Favre Mania is going to be out of control this week. The Favre vs. Packers angle was already intense enough but, after throwing a last-second touchdown to knock off San Fran this week, the veteran quarterback has tossed more fuel on the fire.

Can the Packers knock off the 3-0 Vikings? Green Bay’s greatest asset is its offense, which has struggled somewhat so far this year. However, the Pack did hang 36 up on the Rams last Sunday. This should be a high-scoring struggle but Minnesota is the better team overall—and you know that building is going to be rocking. Bet on the Vikings to help Favre knock down his former team.

 
 

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