The NFL point differential system is one of the many strategies betting enthusiast have exhausted over the years in an attempt to pick a winner in a given game. In essence fans average out the total amount of points for and allowed by each team in a matchup and calculate the winner based on the average outcome of the total amount of points prior. When betting on NFL if you enjoy math this can be the system for you. Below is an example of how the system has been used in years past.

In week seven the Denver Broncos will be playing against the Miami Dolphins in Miami. Through the first six weeks of the season the Broncos have scored 104 points and allowed 148 points. After calculating the team’s average points per game by taking 104 and dividing it with six, we get an average of 17.33 points for after doing the same calculation between points allowed and the six games we get an average of 24.67 points.

How the system works?

Step 1: List all of the teams the road team has played in the six weeks prior to facing the Dolphins and record the number of points allowed and scored in each of those six games.

Broncos Opponents:

Week 1: Vs. Vikings 22.33 - 20.5

Week 2: Vs. Saints 18.5 - 20.33

Week 3: Vs Colts 23 - 17.83

Week 4: Vs Bills 18.83 - 17

Week 5: Vs Chargers 26 - 18.16

Week 6: Vs Lions 16.33 - 19.17

Step 2: Add up the totals of points scored and divide by six then add up all the totals for points allowed and divide by six to get the average of points allowed and points scored per game.

Points scored: 22.33+18.5+23+18.83+26+16.33 = 125.17 / 6 = 20.86

Points allowed: 20.5+20.33+17.83+17+18.16+19.17=110.83 /6 = 18.47

Step 3: Divide road teams average points for against the opponents average points allowed.
17.33/18.47= 0.94

Essentially the Broncos offense runs at a 94 percent success rate as to the average of the entire league.

Step 4: Divide road teams average points allowed by their opponents average points scored:

24.67/20.86 = 1.18

This number tells us that if the average NFL defense operates at 1 percent, and Denver’s defense is at 1.18 percent, then they play at 18 percent worse than the norm.