We’ve reached Week 11 of NFL betting and it seems true “locks” are harder to find each week. Two weeks ago we thought we were safe with Green Bay at Tampa; last week, the surprisingly competitive Rams pushed New Orleans hard enough to beat the spread. Out best bet to find that lock is to start thinking about it by midweek. Right now, the Steelers look like the safe choice.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, November 18, 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL betting: Steelers -10

Interestingly enough, the Steelers’ Week 10 result is the biggest clue as to how they’ll perform in Week 11. If they’d beaten the Bengals and gone to 7-2 atop the AFC North, they’d be in cruise control right now and very susceptible to a trap game – kind of like the Bengals are in Oakland this week. Instead, the Steelers are looking up angrily at the Bengals in the standings and hungry for redemption. Since Pittsburgh won’t get caught napping after a disappointing loss, Kansas City loses the one possible edge it had.

The Chiefs are terrible against the pass; Big Ben Roethlisberger is arguably enjoying his best offensive season to date and should have no problem carving up the K.C. secondary. The Chiefs are horrible against the run; Rashard Mendenhall can stomp all over their front seven. The Chiefs can’t pass, especially with Dwayne Bowe gone from the lineup, so the Steelers won’t have any trouble there. Defending the run, Pittsburgh’s No. 1 run defense will swallow up Jamaal Charles.

It’s tough to see any reason why the Chiefs can win this game or even keep it close, so the Steelers are your lock of the week.