When talking about the NFL betting changes of the Minnesota Vikings to make the postseason, it is impossible not to mention the notorious future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre and whether or not he will be back, if for no other reason than how important he is to the team’s chances. Without Favre, the Vikings were a one-dimensional offense that relied on a solid run game and a top-five defense just to get in to the playoffs. With Favre, the Vikings are a force on offense in both the run and pass aspects, with each helping the other, while the defense has remained solid. Although all three teams in their division have each gotten better, Minnesota still must be considered the division favorite as long as number-four is under center.

The Dallas Cowboys have improved in every betting year under head coach Wade Phillips, and have to be the AFC East division favorites despite the high level of the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, and Washington Redskins. All four of those teams could potentially win the division, and at least one of them should lock up at least one Wild Card spot. The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks could compete for a Wild Card spot, but neither appears ready to challenge the Arizona Cardinals for top spot in the AFC West. The AFC South has had a new winner every season, but this year it looks as though the New Orleans Saints will be pressured by the Atlanta Falcons and no one else. With the Saints, Cowboys, Vikings, and Cardinals all winning their divisions, look for the Giants, Falcons, Packers, and 49ers to compete for the two Wild Card spots.

The online sports betting odds for games won, division winners, and Super Bowl champions are already available for the 2010-11 season, and while players will be quick to put their money down on the perennial favorites in the AFC, a little revision could sway their favor in another direction. While the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers appear poised to repeat once again as division champions in otherwise weak foursomes, the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers will have a tough battle to hold off the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens respectively.

New York showed incredible improvement under first year head coach Rex Ryan in 2009-10, clinching one of the two Wild Card spots en route to the AFC Championship game in which they nearly knocked off the mighty Colts. With another year under the belts of Ryan, sophomore quarterback Mark Sanchez, and the rest of a Jets squad still learning a lot of the playbook most of last season, New York should be a force this coming year.

Ryan’s old club, the Ravens, is another team looking like it should challenge for the division. With Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger out for at least four weeks, the time is now for Baltimore to establish itself as the beasts of the AFC North. With the Colts, Chargers, Jets, and Ravens all clinching their respective divisions, the AFC Wild Card picture will be wide open for the Patriots, Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, and Miami Dolphins to all make a betting on NFL push.

Super teaser betting is one of the most adrenaline pumping wagers in the world of football. Synonymous with teaser bets, super teasers are played when bettors wager on two or more teams while receiving differing point lines then a normal point spread. Today we examine how to wager on super teasers.

As we noted above, super teasers have different point lines, in which bettors can use to spread out over a number of games. The common points you will see in a super teaser are nine, nine and a half and 10. This is a minimum in the super teaser world which is sometimes also called the mega teaser world. The maximum amount of points one can wager is 20. However as you may have read in previous teaser articles, although fun to play, super teasers do not pay out very highly so to win a lot you will have to bet a lot.

On most three team wagers at $10 each, you would have a bet line of 10 to 13. So for every 13 dollars you risk you would only get back 10. The more teams you wager on the higher the payout. In football, during week one there are 15 games played, so you could bet all 15 games in a mega teaser.

One of the most successful routes of super teasing is to use the popular play offered at sportsbooks online in order to play the teaser. Essentially you are risking the books money rather than your own. However if you are able to win on the free play then you take all the winnings. Seems fair right? Many sportsbooks would rather you bet a regular teaser then a mega teaser, because it gives them the best opportunity to collect. Conversely the more teams you add to your card the more risky it gets for the bookie. As we noted earlier the more teams you parlay the easier it is for you to control the line when online betting.

When betting on the NFL there are many different conditions you should consider. One condition that is commonly overlooked is how the weather can affect the outcome of a game. In the beginning of the season the weather plays little to no role on the NFL betting lines. However in the latter months of the season when the regular season ends and the playoffs begin the cold temperatures have a drastic affect on the odds lines.

For instance, in December when the weather is 35 degrees or lower, the point spread and total lines can be affected by two to three points. In cities such as Chicago, Cincinnati and Cleveland, three of the coldest cities in the US during winter, nine games went over the total in last year’s final few weeks of the regular season. Furthermore, generally most of the teams in the NFL use a pass offense and in the latter half of the regular season the wind tends to pick up, playing a pivotal role in the outcome of the games. As a result 13 games between December and January went under the total as the wind made it far more difficult for passes to be completed.

Bettors informing themselves of the weather conditions prior to wagering, should know that the cold weather tends to have a drastic affect on non-playoff warm weather road teams. This was none more evident than in 2007 when teams such as the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers combined with the other warm non playoff teams for an overall record of two wins in six losses.

By factoring in the weather when handicapping your bet, one should always consider the history of each team. Such being the case for the powerhouse San Diego Chargers, in the early stages of the winter they have an undefeated record. Yet when the winter progresses their success turns to dismay as they struggle mightily.

The ultimate NFL betting system in essence operates in favour of the underdog. If you bet with this system beware that although highly successful, it only works once a season. Basically you would pick the opponent of a team who has scored 30 or more points and given up 10 or fewer points in two straight games prior to the game you are about to wager on.  The system wins if the opponent of sans team either covers the spread or wins the game. It was established in 1989, yet has only accumulated a record of 11 wins and one loss in that span. Here are three examples of the ultimate NFL betting system in play:

1.      2008 only time system did not work- In 2008 the Baltimore Ravens became the exception to the rule as after scoring 30 or more points and giving up 10 or fewer points in two straight games prior to their match against the Washington Redskins, they continued to cruise against them. Going into the match the Redskins were a six point underdog, and in order to make the system successful, they needed to either pull the upset or lose by less than six. Instead they continued a rather poor season by losing 24 to 10.

2.      2009 System Rebounds - During the 2009 season the UBS was used only once in a game where the San Francisco 49ers faced the league’s most explosive offence the Indianapolis Colts. Prior to the game the 49ers were a 13 point underdog. However the system rebounded because the 49ers only lost by four in an 18-14 final.

3.      2006 System works and commercial occurs - The Arizona Cardinals made the UBS successful as although a 12 point underdog they led the game 20 to nothing by the half. Yet in the second half they completely collapsed and although making the system a winner, would lose 24 to 23 as the Chicago Bears stormed all the way back. This collapse is one of the biggest in all of sports, and the rant by the Cardinals coach has been featured in various beer commercials.

Betting enthusiasts looking to become more risqué in their wagers look no further than teasers. Teaser bets are played when fans gamble on two or more teams with a single wager. In essence, the bettors receive different point margins, six points to be spread out over your two bets or 10 over your three bets and you win the wagers by all three teams winning that day. Today we look at the proper way to bet online NFL teasers as there is much confusion involved.

The common points you will see in a teaser are six, six and half and seven. For two team teasers fans will usually spread their six to seven points out over the two bets. Here is an example of a point spread and then how it is alternated to fit a teaser line:

Dallas - 8
Minnesota +3

Would change on a six point teaser line to

Dallas - 2
Minnesota +9

In order for you to win on your teaser, you would need Dallas to win their game by at least two points, while needing Minnesota to cover the nine point spread in their game. However if either Dallas or Minnesota lose their game, you lose your wager completely no matter if the other team won.

One of the drawbacks to parlay teaser betting is that the payouts are lower than a normal head to head matchup. However at the same time they are advantageous because you do not have to put as much down as you would on a money line.

The best way to make a profit in the grand scheme of things is to play a Wong teaser. This form of teaser allows the spread to move by two or three numbers. As a result you have a bigger chance of winning by the time you finish placing all your wagers. Since the lines are lower so your teams do not need to cover as much.

For the fan new to NFL betting, understanding each team’s schedule can be the difference between lots of successful wagers, and only getting your feet wet. One of the trickier concepts in the football schedule to strategize for is the success rate of the road team. A general rule of thumb is that every team plays at least two of their road games back to back. As a result when betting on NFL teams, one should always consider that the odds of the road team winning both games are rather slim.

We have found that the decent teams tend to win one out of the two games on their mini road trips, usually the second of the two games. The first game, the odds of the road team winning are usually lower and would read like this:

Panthers
Packers - 10
Outcome of Game 1: Panthers 10 Packers 24
The Packers who are known as one of the perennial powerhouses in the NFC are favored over the Panthers by 10.

Panthers
Vikings - 7
Outcome: Panthers 14 Vikings 10

In the second game of the back to back for the Panthers, the point spread tends to go down, because the bookie believes the Panthers as the road team will have a little more push in the second leg of a back to back. Now although in this example they did win, this is not always the case as losing both is just as likely as winning both games.

As well aside from the back to back away games scenario, another time where you should bet on the road team is when that team is going into a bye week. We have found that every time a road team goes into a bye week or comes out of one, they tend to give a stronger effort.

Similar to big four sports the MLB and the NHL, the NFL training camps have a preseason in which their stars make appearances in at least one of the two exhibition games. Today we look at how preseason home underdogs can be misleading for regular season NFL betting.

Of the big four sports to bet upon, the NFL has by far the biggest attendance. Annually 28 of the 30 teams have over 94 percent attendance as football is taken the most serious of the big four sports. As a result, fans wanting season tickets can only assure they get the best seats if they pay for the two home preseason games. This is bothersome to a lot of fans as teams usually play their secondary teams at home during the preseason.

Nevertheless over the last decade the home team when bet as the underdog during the preseason, has accumulated a 61 percent winning percentage. But why is this?

Essentially, depending on who the home team is can dictate the outcome of games. For instance a team such as the Detroit Lions in order to entice their fans to come to regular season games may have all of their starters play at home during the preseason. As a result, in a game where they face the secondary roster of the Minnesota Vikings, the Lions although even an underdog at home in that game, will end up winning because of having their starters play.

Likewise good teams that had a disastrous season the year prior may have their best players play at home in the preseason to give their fans something to cheer about. Meaning to suggest that betting on the home underdogs can provide bettors with easy victories prior to the start of the regular season.

Handicapping when NFL betting is the quickest way one can go from being a square to becoming an expert. In essence, handicapping is when NFL fans betting online put in an extra effort to research everything there is to know about each game. By doing so these fans give themselves an advantage over the rest of the gambling world when placing their wagers. Here are eight steps to help you become a better handicapper.

1.      Watch the Games - This is the simplest method to handicapping, as a fair majority of football fans will bet on games, and then go do something else the day of the games. As well, many fans simply follow the box scores rather than the game itself. This is not a good indicator of how well your picks are doing. Instead if you do not have the stations for the games, it would be worthwhile to invest in the NFL package, watch the games online or go to a bar.

2.      Selectively Pick - The main difference between squares and expert football bettors, is that the squares bet every game. In order to improve your chances at success each Sunday, pick only a handful of games. On any given Sunday at least 20 teams are playing, of the 10 games, pick between three to five of the games.

3.      Get Informed - Perhaps the most important aspect to handicapping not only in football but in all sports is to get informed. What we mean by get informed, is to essentially know everything there is to know about all 30 NFL teams. This will help you greatly when placing your wagers.

4.      Find Trustworthy Stats- Although there are multiple sites to choose from, every internet site is going to try and sell you with their stats. We suggest you shop around and look for one site that day in and day out provides the most accurate football statistics. Look for the top fantasy football sites as they will have the best statistics.

5.      Track Teams - Even though they wear a lot of padding, football players get injured more than any other professional athlete. As a tip we suggest that when you are getting informed as we suggest in point three, you stay constantly updated and track the progress of every player. If a star player goes down on one team you may want to bet their opponent.

6.      Feel Safe with Top Teams - Annually there are four teams in each conference that dominate. These are the teams you should feel safest betting with as a team such as Indianapolis has been fantastic for the last decade and will be a safer pick then a team such as Jacksonville who makes a play once every three years.

7.      Variety Betting - Many fans stick to the classic win straight up, point spread and over under totals. We suggest on top of betting this way, you also bet via the parlay, teaser and halves bets as these are quite exciting options as well.

8.      Stick with It - Like anything, betting is no easy task. By sticking out the whole season, you may find that you enjoy betting on football, as opposed to leaving after one bad week. Further what you lose in one week can be made up in another.

The NFL point differential system is one of the many strategies betting enthusiast have exhausted over the years in an attempt to pick a winner in a given game. In essence fans average out the total amount of points for and allowed by each team in a matchup and calculate the winner based on the average outcome of the total amount of points prior. When betting on NFL if you enjoy math this can be the system for you. Below is an example of how the system has been used in years past.

In week seven the Denver Broncos will be playing against the Miami Dolphins in Miami. Through the first six weeks of the season the Broncos have scored 104 points and allowed 148 points. After calculating the team’s average points per game by taking 104 and dividing it with six, we get an average of 17.33 points for after doing the same calculation between points allowed and the six games we get an average of 24.67 points.

How the system works?

Step 1: List all of the teams the road team has played in the six weeks prior to facing the Dolphins and record the number of points allowed and scored in each of those six games.

Broncos Opponents:

Week 1: Vs. Vikings 22.33 - 20.5

Week 2: Vs. Saints 18.5 - 20.33

Week 3: Vs Colts 23 - 17.83

Week 4: Vs Bills 18.83 - 17

Week 5: Vs Chargers 26 - 18.16

Week 6: Vs Lions 16.33 - 19.17

Step 2: Add up the totals of points scored and divide by six then add up all the totals for points allowed and divide by six to get the average of points allowed and points scored per game.

Points scored: 22.33+18.5+23+18.83+26+16.33 = 125.17 / 6 = 20.86

Points allowed: 20.5+20.33+17.83+17+18.16+19.17=110.83 /6 = 18.47

Step 3: Divide road teams average points for against the opponents average points allowed.
17.33/18.47= 0.94

Essentially the Broncos offense runs at a 94 percent success rate as to the average of the entire league.

Step 4: Divide road teams average points allowed by their opponents average points scored:

24.67/20.86 = 1.18

This number tells us that if the average NFL defense operates at 1 percent, and Denver’s defense is at 1.18 percent, then they play at 18 percent worse than the norm.